Massachusetts retailers hope for a third straight year of holiday sales increases amid growing consumer confidence despite the looming "fiscal cliff."
The Retailers Association of Massachusetts is forecasting a 3.5 percent rise in November and December sales to an estimated $14 billion based on a survey of its 3,500 members. Sales climbed 5 percent last year and 7 percent in 2010 after three years of single-digit declines.
"It's a solid increase that reflects the fact that the consumer is becoming more confident, but they're still being cautious," said Jon Hurst, the trade group's president. "They're not going to go out and go into debt. They learned a tough lesson in 2008."
Five full weekends between Thanksgiving and Christmas and the maximum number of days between the two holidays mean more opportunities for store trips and unplanned impulse buys to fuel holiday sales, according to Hurst.
"The weekends after Thanksgiving and leading into Christmas are long weekends," Hurst said. "Those are, by far, the most important. I think they'll be gangbuster."
The National Retail Federation, meanwhile, expects holiday sales nationwide to climb 4.1 percent to $586.1 billion.
The NRF yesterday called on President Obama and Congress to devise a plan to avoid the end-of-the-year "fiscal cliff" of tax increases and federal spending cuts by Thanksgiving, saying the uncertainty threatens consumer confidence during the holiday shopping season.
But Hurst sees the "fiscal cliff" as less of a threat, likening it to gasoline prices.
"A lot of consumers have grown accustomed to both political games and gas prices," he said. "Most consumers understand that a solution will come sooner or later. The key for consumers is to see cooperation, to see some progress."
Actual holiday sales grew 5 percent last year in Massachusetts — more than double the projected increase — and 7 percent in 2010 after a 4.3 percent rise was projected. Hurst acknowledged that RAM members may be a little conservative.
"They're small businesses," he said. "They are naturally cautiously optimistic. They, like the consumer, learned some things. In 2008 and 2009, you wanted to come down on the side of being a little cautious as far as how much you invested in your inventory, and you didn't want to over-extend yourself."
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