Holiday shoppers with toys on their lists may do well to sleep in on Black Friday.
A study that tracked the online prices of 252 toys last year — including those on the Toys 'R' Us "hot toy" list — found that Black Friday ranked as the worst day to buy them. The best day to get a toy below its original holiday price was the first Saturday in December, when nearly three in five of the toys were on sale.
"The good news is that actually a lot of products are on sale (on Black Friday) compared to their prices at the end of September, but it wasn't even close to the best day," said Andrew Mahon, co-founder and vice president of marketing at Maynard-based Evoqu Inc., whose ShopAdvisor website and app allows consumers to create shopping lists and receive alerts when prices hit a certain point. "Between Black Friday and Christmas, it turned out to be the worst sale day. Black Friday was the day when the lowest percentage of products (46 percent) were on sale below their original holiday prices."
Prices for nearly a quarter of the toys actually spiked on Black Friday, second only to the day before Dec. 23, when two in five of the toys were priced at a premium.
Shoppers willing to take a risk did best in the last two weeks before Christmas. At least one in 10 toys were discounted by 30 percent or more on each of the last 14 days before Christmas. But, the prices of almost as many toys increased by 30 percent or more during that time.
"Let's say there's one of three toys that I know one of my kids wants," Mahon said. "There's a pretty big chance that one of them is going to go on peak sale ... in the two weeks before Christmas."
Consumers can follow some of ShopAdvisor's analysis of this year's toy prices on its blog, which is tracking 24 toys on the Toys 'R' Us 2012 "hot toy" list announced in September.
For shoppers who still prefer to get their shopping done on or before Black Friday, online price-tracking sites are a great resource, according to Somerville consumer advocate Edgar Dworsky, founder of ConsumerWorld.org.
"Consumers are kind of notoriously bad at doing comparison shopping and worse on following up on purchases that they made to see if the prices dropped," Dworsky said. "It's wise to shop at a store that has a price guarantee, so if you buy an item on Black Friday, and the price goes down, you can go back and get the difference."
Dworsky concedes that not everything is cheaper on Black Friday, but advertised items tend to have "pretty good" prices and door-busters tend to have "great" prices. Some retailers are starting their online Black Friday sales — which include toys — as early as just after tonight, at 12:30 a.m. tomorrow. A list of those stores and their starting hours can be found at BlackFriday.GottaDeal.com/Tracker.
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