The annual gaming revenue projected by the competing Mohegan Sun and Wynn Resorts casino proposals exceed a new state Gaming Commission study, which factors in competition from the slots parlor the commission green-lighted to open at the harness racetrack in Plainville.
The commission's study, released late last month by the firm HLT, projects the Boston-area casino will generate $749 million in gross gaming revenue with a slots parlor open in Plainville, with $606.9 million coming from Massachusetts and $142 million from neighboring states. The state will take 25 percent of that revenue in taxes.
Mohegan Sun projects $857 million in gross gaming revenues in its first year for a casino at Suffolk Downs in Revere, while Wynn projects $804 million for its Everett site.
Gaming Commission Chairman Stephen Crosby said the board will study the discrepancies.
"We'll be looking at their projections, looking at their assumptions and giving them a good scrub," Crosby said.
Clyde Barrow, a University of Massachusetts Dartmouth professor and gaming expert, said his independent studies have projected well north of $800 million, particularly for a Suffolk Downs casino, because it's in such a dense population area.
"They're high," Barrow said, "but I came out in the same space as they did."
Wynn says it's been conservative in its estimates, and supporters of the Everett casino say the Las Vegas company has the economic strength to deliver on promises.
"The hastily devised Mohegan Sun casino proposed in Revere at the last minute will not attract visitors from outside our region or even take away any business from Mohegan Sun's main operation in Connecticut," Everett Mayor Carlo DeMaria said in a statement. "Wynn Resorts has a proven track record of attracting international customers to their facilities — that's the type of operator Massachusetts needs."
Gary Luderitz, Mohegan Sun's vice president of operations and development, stuck by the projections, saying the company is better positioned to tap customers in the region due to its existing database and that the commission's estimate that the average adult will leave $375 at the Boston-area casino per visit '"sounds a little low to me."
"We're starting from a very strong position in the Northeast," Luderitz said. "Our data analysis consultants used figures that had held up in other work that they've done. We feel pretty good about it."
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