Can Mass. casinos compete?

The state's gaming czar says local casinos are ready to weather mounting competitive pressures in New York and Connecticut in 2015, as his commission gears up to regulate its first gambling facility in Plainville and grapples with uncertainty over whether there will be a third Bay State casino in Southeastern Massachusetts.

Gaming Commission chairman Stephen Crosby said developments such as New York approving three new upstate casinos on Dec. 17 — including one in Schenectady, 90 minutes from the MGM Springfield project — have been "part of the calculation from the beginning."

"The Springfield facility is going to take a backseat to nobody," Crosby said. "I think we are going to have by far the most compelling, most competitively well-positioned facilities out there."

But Michael Paladino, who assesses the credit worthiness of casino companies for Fitch Ratings, said the types of casinos New York has opened, and the commercial one rumored on Connecticut's Bay State border, generally eat away at the existing local customer base, not add to it.

"We do think the market in the Northeast is saturated, particularly with the competition coming online in New York and Massachusetts," Paladino said. "It means that, generally, new competition has limited ability to grow the market, and essentially cannibalizes existing properties to a great degree."

MGM, which this year was licensed to build an $800 million casino in downtown Springfield, isn't worried.

"We are confident that as an urban revitalization project our innovative design, tested marketing plan, and strong brand will make MGM Springfield a premiere destination resort casino in the Northeast," MGM spokeswoman Carole Brennan said. "We are moving full steam ahead for a spring 2015 groundbreaking."

Boston College professor Richard McGowan, a casino expert, expects to see Massachusetts projects cut back as New York facilities come online, and for the Mohegan Sun and Foxwoods casinos to adjust to hold on to market share.

"In the long run ... you're going to see a repeat of Atlantic City, eventually," McGowan said, referring to the widespread shuttering of casinos this year. "There's going to be too many."

The first facility to open will be the $225 million Penn National slots parlor at the Plainridge Race Course in Plainville, expected in June. Crosby said the commission will add 10 to 15 staff members to regulate the Penn facility, which he called the gaming panel's "real focus" in 2015.

Meanwhile, there is a dearth of developments for the "Region C" resort casino license in the southeastern part of the state, with a Jan. 9 deadline for interested parties to submit a list of principals for background checks.

KG Urban has been approved to pursue a license in Region C, but has yet to announce an operator or win the support of New Bedford Mayor Jon Mitchell, who is shopping the municipal golf course and a waterfront industrial site to casino operators.

"The market here in the Southeast is clearly weaker than it is in the other two regions," Mitchell said. "We're not holding our breath, but we're also open for a good proposal still."